Monday, September 24, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Update #10

Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) has managed to complete an eyewall replacement cycle and has intensified thereafter. Jelawat is now a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It was last located approximately 420km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Jelawat is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela, Cagayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands. Areas mentioned should expect strong winds to occur in the next 24 to 36 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a well-defined eye and a much larger one compared to a few days ago. Jelawat has managed to successfully complete an eyewall replacement cycle. Dual outflow channels remain excellent and we expect a little bit more intensification in the next 2 days. For now, outer rain bands and the enhancement of Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) continue to bring scattered to widespread rains across Palawan, Visayas, and parts of Mindanao. Some weather stations here have reported 50 to 80mm of rain in the past 24 hours and 50mm of rain more could fall today. Eventually, some of those rain showers could move north into parts of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.

Forecast Tracks continue to bring Jelawat towards the north in the next 24 hours but are expecting a more northwestward turn by Thursday. It will past within 300km northeast of Cagayan during that time and could bring strong winds, heavy rains, and rough waves in the region. Jelawat could move very near Taiwan by Friday before recurving to the northeast. The main uncertainty right now is whether Jelawat will make landfall in Taiwan or not.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092512

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