As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Cagayan, Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan, and Babuyan. Signal #1 for Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Isabela. The said provinces should be prepared for stormy conditions in the next 24 hours. Winds of up to 100kph are possible along with widespread rains. Please consult your local officials for possible evacuations and other warnings.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest microwave image is still showing a 20km diameter well-defined eye. The eye is still surrounded by strong convective activity, although much of the cloud tops have warmed in the past 24 hours. Strong outflow channels and weak wind shear continue to help Jelawat maintain its present intensity but we do think the system will start to weaken later today or perhaps by tomorrow. A look at the infra-red image above also shows some showers still affecting parts of Luzon and Visayas but they are not as widespread. Rainfall amounts in these affected areas have generally been light--only around 30 to 50mm in the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, we still expect the southwest monsoon to continue bringing light rains in the area and could slowly move to the north in the next couple of days eventually affecting Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.
Computer models are starting to show better agreement in the forecast tracks and so we have more confidence with Jelawat's future movement. We think Jelawat will continue on its northwesterly direction but should turn more to the north by tomorrow as a trough dives into Eastern Asia. This trough will steer Jelawat to the north and northeast, avoiding making landfall in Taiwan. Jelawat should also begin to weaken during this time and could eventually become a Category 2 Typhoon by Friday as it nears the Okinawa Islands.
We'll have more update later this afternoon. Meanwhile, you can watch our Video Update from yesterday detailing the forecasts for Jelawat.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 092612
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