Monday, August 27, 2012

Typhoon Tembin Update #17

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) moving closer towards Taiwan. It was last located approximately 450km south southwest of Taipei, Taiwan or aobut 300km west northwest of Basco, Batanes or about 320km north northwest of Laoag City. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Tembin is currently moving east northeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRMLRY

Latest satellite image shows Tembin is continuing to weaken with the eye now gone and the convective activity starting to weaken. It is still a typhoon though and will probably remain at that intensity up until landfall. Some rains and strong winds affecting Northern Luzon, particularly Laoag and nearby areas. Rains of up to 100mm possible here along with winds of up to 60kph especially along the coast.

Radar Image from CWB

Latest radar out of Taiwan shows bands of rains starting to move across the southern portions of the country. Rains of up to 50mm could fall tonight and will only get heavier through tomorrow (Tuesday). As much as 500mm of rain is possible by Wednesday with the heaviest possibly occurring along the mountainous regions of Taiwan. For the latest radar images, forecasts, and warnings from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tembin is forecast to make landfall in the southern tip of Taiwan, near Hengchun, within 12 hours. It will weaken to a Tropical Storm as it exits along the eastern coast by Tuesday morning. It will continue to bring heavy rains across Taiwan through Wednesday. After that, Tembin could move near Shanghai in Eastern China by Thursday but should be a weak Tropical Storm by that time. Eventually Tembin is forecast to head towards Northeastern China later this week, possibly as a  Tropical Depression.

We'll have more updates tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 082712

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