Sunday, August 26, 2012

Typhoon Tembin Update #16

Typhoon Tembin seems to be slightly weakening as it begins to make its turn to the east. The system was last located approximately 300km southeast of Hong Kong or about 630km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Tembin is currently moving southeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRMLRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye looking very poor at the moment. Convective activity has also weakened in the past 6 hours. Microwave image (not included here) shows the eyewall of Tembin has eroded. There seems to a big amount of dry air that has been ingested by the system earlier today. Nevertheless, outflow remains good and the system still lies in an area that is favorable for intensification.

Radar from CWB

Latest radar from China confirming the loss of the eyewall structure with little activity on the northern and eastern side of the circulation. No rains affecting China at the moment although some showers may make their way toward Taiwan and Batanes Islands later tonight as Tembin slowly moves eastward. For more radar images, forecasts, and warnings from China, please click HERE

For Taiwan's weather bureau, CWB, please click HERE

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We expect Tembin to resume intensification later tonight and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility early tomorrow morning (Monday). Tembin has a small chance of peaking at Category 3 Typhoon intensity before making landfall in Hengchun in the southern tip of Taiwan. It will significantly weaken to a Category 1 as it tracks east of Taiwan by Tuesday. Heavy rains and strong winds will begin for Taiwan and also for Batanes Islands tomorrow morning. There could be as much as 300mm of rain falling tomorrow evening into Tuesday. Tembin will then track northwards, weakening to a Tropical Storm by Wednesday. Current forecast tracks suggest that Tembin could make landfall in Eastern China by Thursday.

We'll have more updates tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082612

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