Sunday, August 26, 2012

Typhoon Bolaven Update #14 (LANDFALL)

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 Note: For the latest video update on Tembin and Bolaven, please click HERE

Typhoon Bolaven is now making landfall along the northern part of Okinawa Island. Maximum sustained winds remain at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Tembin is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar out of Okinawa shows the eye of Bolaven slowly moving into the island. The eye seems to be moving just north of the town of Higashi. While the system does look powerful on both radar and satellite, wind reports from Okinawa are all currently below typhoon-force. Even wind gusts have "only" been around 120 to 140kph so far. That doesn't mean you should take this storm lightly as stormy conditions will still persist throughout the night and while much of Okinawa may not see typhoon winds, areas to the north could still experience winds of 160kph or more, especially near the eye. Aside from the winds, heavy rain continues to fall across Okinawa and nearby islands. Latest reports show rainfall amounts of 40 to 80mm since this morning and another 50 to 100mm could fall tonight and into tomorrow. For more radar images, warnings, and forecasts from JMA, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

An hour-old infrared satellite image shows the system maintains a small eye with weakening convective activity. Dry air intrusion, together with the eyewall replacement cycle, have contributed to the system's weakening in the past 12 hours. Personally, based on ground reports in Okinawa, along with current satellite presentation, we seriously doubt the system is as strong as JTWC and JMA are making it out to be. Despite the pressure reports going down like a rock (latest report show a 958mb pressure), stations in Okinawa haven't reported any sustained typhoon winds. Either way, as said in the above paragraph, the system is still a big threat as stormy conditions will still persist in the region for another 24 hours.

Forecast Track

After moving across Okinawa, Bolaven will continue moving northward weakening along the way. It will become a Category 2 Typhoon by Monday evening and could move within 150km west of Jeju Island by early Tuesday morning. Bolaven will accelerate and weaken as it tracks west of South Korea, passing west of Seoul, and then making landfall in North Korea by Tuesday evening as a Category 1 Typhoon. Bolaven will move near Pyonyang and then cross into China by Wednesday as a weak Tropical Storm.

We'll have more updates tomorrow. Stay safe!

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