Saturday, August 11, 2012

Tropical Update

We continue to watch the low pressure area cross the Philippine Sea as it continues to slowly develop. Invest 93W was last spotted approximately 1,200km east of Luzon and is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. This LPA is still in the early stages of development but it could become a cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows a poorly organized disturbance with weak convection. Invest 93W is in an area of low to moderate wind shear and favorable sea surface temperatures. JTWC is keeping its LOW rating for Invest 93W mentioning the moderate shear and the presence of multiple vortices.

Computer models are also less optimistic in terms of development and most of them are only showing a weak storm forming next week. Weak or not, 93W is expected to enhance--once again--the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across the Philippines in the coming days. And if it does develop, current projections are taking 93W towards the general direction of Taiwan.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081112

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