Friday, August 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Tembin (Igme) Update #13

Tropical Storm Tembin (Bagyong Igme) continues to weaken as it struggles to reorganize following making landfall yesterday in Taiwan. The system was last located approximately 400km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan or about 420km west northwest of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. Tembin is currently moving west southwestward at 15kph.

JTWC has, surprisingly, upgraded Tembin back to a Typhoon but recent satellite images and reports from Taiwan suggest that Tembin remains a Tropical Storm. For this time, we are using JMA's wind analysis.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has downgraded Public Storm Warning Signal #2 to a Signal #1 in Batanes Group of Islands. All other Signal Warnings elsewhere have been removed. Central Weather Bureau, on the other hand, continues to issue Typhoon Warnings for Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung County. Many parts of the island remain under Rain Advisory as well.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continue to show Tembin struggling to reorganize with the central convection now elongated. However, a microwave image (not shown here) suggest that the convection is trying to wrap around the system with the core beginning to reform. It will take time strengthening again but the favorable conditions in the region should give Tembin a chance to become a Typhoon once again in the next 2 days.

Radar Image from CWB

Latest radar image from Taiwan, shows the center of Tembin moving away but widespread rains continue across the southern areas of the country. Inflow bands from the south and southeast will continue to bring rain in this area throughout today. Many stations have now reported seeing 300 to 500mm of rain in the past 36 hours. Another 100mm could fall today in some spots. For the latest radar images, warnings, and forecasts from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website).

Tembin will continue meandering in the seas southwest of Taiwan. It will re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility sometime tomorrow. As Typhoon Bolaven continues to get nearer, the Fujiwhara Effect will become much stronger and should pull Tembin back to the east by Sunday or Monday. By that time, we expect the system to become a Typhoon once more.

We'll have more updates and forecasts, later this afternoon.
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 082512

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