Monday, August 6, 2012

Tropical Storm Haikui Update #6

Tropical Storm Haikui continues to move slowly away from Ryukyu Islands and is now over the East China Sea. The system was last located approximately 250km west northwest of Okinawa or about 560km southeast of Shanghai. Maximum sustained winds have slightly increased to 110kph with gusts of up to 150kph. TS Haikui is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Heavy Rain and High Waves Warnings remain in effect from JMA along with Gale, Thunderstorms, and other advisories. Kadena has now switched to Storm Watch from TCCOR 1. China, on the other hand, have raised Yellow Alert in anticipation of Haikui's landfall. Please continue monitoring the developments in your area; even though weather is getting better in the Ryukyus rains and winds could continue tonight. As for Eastern China, landfall is forecast to occur as early as tomorrow evening so start preparing now if you haven't done so already.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest infra-red satellite image shows Haikui really getting better organized with the Central Dense Overcast more symmetrical and the center becoming more defined. Eyewall could form in the next few hours and we could Haikui be upgraded into a typhoon as early as tonight. Even though the storm is beginning to pull away, we are still seeing some convection over Okinawa and the Miyakojima Islands. Some bands could still move through here bringing brief rain showers.

Radar Image from Okinawa and Miyakojima (respectively)


While much of the rains have now moved west of Okinawa, outer bands continue to move across Miyakojima and the nearby islands. These rains can still drop up to 50mm tonight. Brief rains showers could also be possible across Okinawa in the next few hours. Rainfall reports in the region range from 100 to 200mm with some stations reporting more than 250mm. Rains tonight should be lighter although amounts of up to 50mm are still possible.

Winds also continue affect the islands. Sustained winds of 50 to 70kph are still being reported with occasional gusts of up to 130kph. Both the strong winds and occasional rains will continue tonight but should start to wind down starting early tomorrow. We expect quieter weather conditions for the Japanese Islands tomorrow.

For more radar images, warnings, and forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), please click HERE

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Haikui is still forecast to make landfall along the coast of Zhejiang Province (near the city of Weizhou) as early as tomorrow evening. Based on the current trends, it could intensify into a typhoon later tonight and could continue intensifying up until landfall. Haikui will then move across Eastern China, weakening to a tropical storm by Wednesday. Computer models and forecast agencies are now showing a turn to the north as latest data suggest that Haikui could recurve and move back into the East China Sea by Friday.

While we are still unsure when that recurvature will happen, we now have shifted our track slightly and we expect Haikui to move within 200km west of Shanghai by Wednesday afternoon as a Tropical Storm. It could turn back into the sea by Friday as a weak storm. If it does recurve, we don't really expect Haikui to reintensify significantly although it could pose a threat to South Korea and Western Japan by this weekend.

Southwest Monsoon Update

Widespread rains continue to move from the west impacting many areas in Central and Southern Luzon (including Manila). We are also seeing showers expand into the Bicol Regions and parts of Visayas. Right now, however, the bulk of the rains remain situated across Luzon where many areas have reported 50 to 100mm. Many rivers in the region, including those situated across Manila, have now reached critical levels. La Mesa Dam in Quezon City has actually reached spilling level prompting more than 1,000 residents to flee their homes. Unfortunately, rains will continue here in the next 2 days. For the latest radar images, please go to PAGASA's NOAH Website by clicking HERE

This is a potentially dangerous situation so please continue monitoring the developments on the news and on the web. Stay safe!

We'll have our next update tomorrow. If you have any storm and flood reports, or questions and comments, please feel free to email them to us at
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 080612

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