Sunday, August 5, 2012

Tropical Storm Haikui Update #5

Tropical Storm Haikui is now moving across the East China Sea although heavy rains and strong winds continue to be felt across the Ryukyu Islands. The center of the storm was last located approximately 150km west northwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. Haikui is currently moving west southwestward at 10kph.

Heavy Rain, Floods, and High Waves Warnings continue to be issued by the JMA. Kadena has now switched TCCOR 1-C (Caution). Residents are advised to remain inside as the stormy conditions persist. Despite Haikui moving away from the islands, this weather will last into tonight and possibly tomorrow as the storm slowed down even more.

Radar from JMA

Latest radar from Okinawa shows the center of Haikui is still being picked up. The storm slowed down even more today with much of the heavy rains still situated across Okinawa and nearby islands. So far, we've had rainfall reports ranging from 100 to 150mm with some stations reporting 200mm. Expect more bands of rain to come from the southwest as Haikui moves slowly away. There could be another 50 to 100mm of rain falling today in some areas. Sustained winds of up to 90kph have also been reported this morning, with gusts reaching up to 110kph. Winds will remain in that tropical storm intensity but should slowly weaken starting tonight. Continue to monitor the developments in your area even though Haikui is starting to pull away.

For more radar images and warnings from JMA, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite image shows some improvement with regards to Haikui's organization. More bands of convection are seen wrapping around the circulation. There is still some dry air, particularly on the northern side of the storm, but Haikui is managing to fight that entrainment. Wind shear remains light and the waters around East China Sea are favorable for continued development.

Haikui will continue to move slowly across East China Sea today, bringing more rains across the Ryukyu Islands and even into Northern Taiwan. Due to the favorable conditions, Haikui could become a typhoon as early as tonight. While the forecast tracks remain set on a landfall in Eastern China, the timing of the storm has changed quite significantly. Based on the latest data, we now expect Haikui to make landfall along the coast of Zhejiang Province as early as tomorrow evening (Tuesday). It will make landfall near the city of Taizhou (roughyl 250km south of Shanghai) as a strong typhoon. It will then turn to the north northwest, weakening along the way. Haikui could pass 100km west of Shanghai by Wednesday afternoon as a weak Tropical Storm. If you are living in Eastern China, now is the time to prepare as landfall is imminent and could occur in the next 48 hours.

SW Monsoon Alert

The Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) continues to bring scattered to widespread rains across the country, particularly in Central and Southern Luzon. The monsoon continues to be enhanced by Haikui to the north and the monsoon trough situated across the Pacific. These rains can dump up huge amounts of rain and many stations, especially near Manila, are already reporting up to 150mm of rain in the past 12 hours alone. Numerous rivers are near or at Critical Level across the National Capital Region and we have received word that the La Mesa Dam is already as spilling level. Continue to watch the news on TV or on the internet for the latest updates in your area. Stay safe!

We'll have another update on Haikui later this afternoon.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 080612

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