Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Tropical Storm Haikui Update #10

Haikui has weakened to a Tropical Storm after making landfall as a typhoon in Zhejiang Province earlier this morning. The storm was last located approximately 200km west southwest Shanghai. Maximum sustained winds are down to 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Haikui is moving northwestward at 15kph.

China Meteorological Administration continues to issue Orange Warning for Typhoon and Orange Warning for Rainstorm. The agency is still expecting winds of up to 120kph and rains reaching up to 400mm in the next two days in the provinces of Zhejian, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Shanghai. If you are in these areas, please continue to monitor the developments on your TV or on the web for the latest warnings.

Radar from CMA

Latest radar in Eastern China shows the extent of light to moderate rains in the region. Nearly 300mm have already fallen in some spots and as much as 400mm could still fall in the next 2 days. Strong winds of up to 100kph continue to be felt in some areas, as well, although the winds should gradually weaken as Haikui loses strength.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the broad circulation of Haikui with much of the convection situated across Eastern China. Expect more rains especially along Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. Jiangxi and Northern Fujian should begin to see improving weather tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Haikui will continue moving slowly to the northwest. It could weaken to a Tropical Depression as early as tomorrow evening (Thursday) over Anhui or Jiangsu Province. Rains in the region will continue along with gusty winds. We are still expecting re-curvature to occur by Saturday although Haikui could be very weak by that time that even though it manages to re-emerge over the water, it will have a hard time reorganizing. Nevertheless, as it turns to the northeast, Haikui (or its remnants) could still bring rains across South Korea and Western Japan early next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 080812

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