Sunday, August 12, 2012

Tropical Depression 14W (Helen) Update #2

Tropical Depression 14W (Bagyong Helen) continues to slowly intensify across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 560km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are around 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. 14W is currently moving westward at 20kph.

No Public Storm Warning Signal have been issued so far by PAGASA.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Tropical Depression 14W or Helen with strong convective activity surrounding the circulation. The system is still under somewhat moderate wind shear and the bulk of the convection is located west of the center. Outflow is also restricted to the southern part of 14W.

Rains from TD 14W/Helen are beginning to affect parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas. Isolated showers are also making their way towards Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Areas mentioned could get up to 50mm of rain today and will persist through tomorrow.

Forecast tracks for 14W remain generally the same and we expect the system to intensify into a Tropical Storm later tonight. TD 14W will continue moving westward then make a turn to the northwest, avoiding landfall in Luzon. However, the system will still enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) so expect more rains in the coming days. Right now, medium-term forecasts are split between a track towards Luzon Strait of towards Taiwan. We'll continue to adjust our forecasts as more data come in.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081312

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