Thursday, July 12, 2012

Tropical Update

(Apologies for not being able to put up an update yesterday.)

The Western Pacific remains quiet and the recent weakening of the SW Monsoon has led to generally dry weather across the Philippines. However, farther to the north a boundary front brought very heavy rainfall across Japan--particularly in Kyushu. Rainfall rates of up to 100mm per hour (!) were recorded in some areas leading to total amounts of up to 300mm. The heavy rains which began last night have already killed 4 people and prompted thousands of people to evacuate. You can read more about the rains in Japan through our affiliate Western Pacific Weather; click HERE

Going back to the Tropics, the dry weather pattern continues for much of the region. Both the SW Monsoon and the ITCZ has slightly weakened over the past 3 days. However, thunderstorms continue to pop-up, especially in the afternoon and early-evening hours, as a result of daytime heating. These showers and thunderstorms are quick-moving and should not bring huge amounts of rain.

IR Image from NOAA

Aside from the thunderstorms, we are watching a weak Tropical Wave embedded along a surface trough that is moving across Koror. This disturbance is not really expected to develop into a cyclone although it could bring widespread rains across Mindanao and Visayas for Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected. The patterns we've discussed in our previous update continue to suppress cyclone development in the Western Pacific. Right now, the active pattern is situated in the Eastern Pacific (near Mexico) where they have already seen 2 hurricanes in a week; another one could form in the next few days! For our area, based on long range forecasts, we expect this quiet pattern to continue for another week.

Our next update will be on Sunday.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 071212

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