Monday, July 30, 2012

Tropical Storm Saola (Gener) Update #10

Tropical Storm Saola (Bagyong Gener) has slowed down as it tries to restrengthen east of the Babuyan Islands. The storm was last located approximately 230km east of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. Saola is currently stationary at the moment but is expected to start moving towards the northwest later today.

No changes in the 11am update from PAGASA as Public Storm Warning Signal #3 remains in effect for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #1 for Isabela, Kalinga, and Apayao. Please note that PAGASA is already classifying Saola as a typhoon hence the issuance of the Signal #3 for Batanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Recent satellite images depict that the eye may be trying to form again as Saola starts to restrengthen. Microwave images also show that the eyewall is beginning to build back and if these trends continue, we won't be surprised if Saola is upgraded back to a Typhoon later today. Saola also continues to bring rains across Northern Luzon including the islands to the north. Many areas have reported 100 to 150mm of rain so far and more is expected today and into the evening hours.

Radar from CWB

Meanwhile, latest radar image from Taiwan shows the bulk of the rains remain to the south of the country although outer bands from Saola are beginning to move from the east. Already, some areas are reporting anywhere between 50 and 150mm of rain especially in the mountainous areas, increasing the likelihood of floods and landslides. While we are not yet expecting the full brunt of Saola to impact Taiwan today, expect conditions to gradually deteriorate as Saola nears tonight and into tomorrow. For more radar images and warnings out of Taiwan, please click HERE to proceed to the CWB website.

Forecast tracks haven't changed much for Saola. Most agencies are still taking Saola towards the either Fujian or Zhejiang Province by early Friday morning. Computer models are also in good agreement although some of them differ in timing and strength. Although the consensus remains in good agreement with the overall forecast track. Saola should continue strengthening at a faster pace as it approaches the northeastern part of Taiwan; it could move close to the Ishikagijima Islands by tomorrow evening (Wednesday) as a Category 1 typhoon. After that, Saola should start turning more to the west and intensifying into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall in China.

Unfortunately, we'll have no video update today. Our next Text Update will be later tonight at 11pm, we apologize for this inconvenience.
Issued (0530 UTC) 130pm PhT 073112

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