Monday, July 30, 2012

Tropical Storm Damrey Update #3

Tropical Storm Damrey continues to slowly intensify as it moves towards the Ogasawara Islands. Damrey was last located approximately 360km east northeast of Iwo To, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Damrey is currently moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Damrey is becoming better organized with flaring convection starting wrap around the low-level center. The storm is managing to fight off the dry air to the west. Outflow remains good, and both wind shear and sea temperatures remain favorable for intensification. Damrey is forecast to continue its slow intensification over the next few days although it is now less likely that the system will become a typhoon. Nevertheless, both JMA and JTWC expect it to become a severe storm and just below the Typhoon status.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
**Note the Strength in the image below should say 85kph not 45kph

Current forecasts remain in very good agreement and most agencies and model outputs take Damrey on a west northwestward course. Based on the latest movements, it could approach Southern Kyushu and the Ryukyu Islands by early Thursday morning. It will then continue towards the Eastern China Sea and make landfall in Eastern China near Shanghai by Friday morning as a strong Tropical Storm. There is still a slight possibility that Damrey will have interaction with Saola. If it does happen, Damrey could be absorbed by the much stronger Saola. It's still uncertain though so we'll continue to keep an eye out on this system.

We'll have another update on Damrey tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 073012

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