Sunday, July 29, 2012

Tropical Storm Damrey Update #2

Tropical Storm Damrey continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 480km east northeast of Iwo To, Japan. Damrey is now a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of around 65kph and gusts of up to 85kph. Damrey is moving west northwestward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The system remains lopsided as the bulk of the convection is still displaced slightly to the east. However, new bursts of convection are being observed near the center of the storm. There is some dry air west of the system which is slowing down intensification but we expect Damrey to sort those issued in the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Damrey is forecast to continue moving west northwestward slowly. It should continue intensifying albeit at a slow pace. JMA is actually expecting Damrey to intensify to a typhoon by Wednesday and while there is very little model support there is a chance of that happening. Our forecast basically agrees with the consensus among the forecasting agencies and we expect Damrey to move towards Kyushu Region by early Thursday morning. We are kinda agreeing with the JMA in terms of intensity largely due to the favorable environment.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 072912

No comments:

Post a Comment