Monday, June 4, 2012

Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) Update #9

Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) continues to weaken as it approaches the Okinawa Islands. It was last located approximately 260km south of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 165kph gusting to 205kph. Typhoon Mawar is currently moving northeastward at 20kph.

Latest radar image out of Okinawa continue to show squally light to moderate rains showers with more bands of steadier rains approaching from the south. Rains have also been affecting Daito Islands since 9pm last night. Reports around the region indicate rain accumulations of 5 to 10mm so far. As those rains continue, we are forecasting widespread 50 to 100mm of rain and some areas could receive as much as 150mm of rain through tonight (Tuesday). For the latest radar data, please click HERE (JMA website)

Strong winds are also beginning to pound the islands. Latest reports indicate sustained winds of 40 to 50kph with gusts now reaching tropical-storm strength (65kph or more). we are still expecting tropical storm winds to affect Okinawa but due to the apparent rapid deterioration of the system, it is now becoming unlikely for typhoon-force winds to impact the area. Daito Islands, on the other hand, should still expect peak winds typhoon-force or stronger later this morning and lasting into the afternoon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The infra-red image above shows how the system is losing symmetry and is becoming more ragged. JTWC remains generous in terms of wind assessment although we have reason to believe that winds in the system are rapidly weakening. This is why we no longer expect typhoon winds in Okinawa. Nevertheless, heavy rains and gusty winds will still impact the region with the worst conditions expected for Daito Islands.

We have also updated our Typhoon Timeline (NOT OFFICIAL!), please DO NOT use for life and death decisions. You can visit JMA's typhoon page for their OFFICIAL warnings and forecasts, visit their site by clicking HERE

Typhoon Timeline:

6am JST: 200km southeast of Okinawa, 270km southwest of Daitojima. TS winds continue for Okinawa, TS-force winds also for Daito with typhoon-force gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue to affect the region as well.
9am JST: 220km southeast of Okinawa, 160km west southwest of Okinawa. TS-force winds continue for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds for Daito. Light to moderate rains possible with occasional squalls of heavy rain for both islands.
12pm JST: 280km east of Okinawa, 80km east of Daito. TS-force gusts for Okinawa while Typhoon-force winds of 120 to 150kph likely for Daito, higher gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue for Okinawa, moderate to heavy rains possible for Daito.
3pm JST: 340km east northeast of Okinawa, 75km north northwest of Daito, 250km southeast of Amami. TS-force winds starting to back down for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito, gusty winds begin for Amami could reach tropical storm-force. Light to moderate rains for  Okinawa, Steady moderate rain for Daito, scattered showers for Amami.
6pm JST: 380km east northeast of Okinawa, 120km north of Daito, 260km southeast of Amami. Winds backing down in Okinawa as well as in Amami. Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito although starting to weaken as well. Rains ending in Okinawa although scattered showers are still possible. Light rains continue for Amami while moderate rains for Daito.

Rest of the forecast doesn't change, however due to the recent trends, we believe the system will lose typhoon-strength as early as tonight (Tuesday). Further observations suggests the typhoon is beginning to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone, the ETT could be complete as early as Wednesday.

We'll have another update later this morning. Stay safe!
Issued (1730 UTC) 230am PhT 060512

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