Monday, June 4, 2012

Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) Update #8

Typhoon Mawar begins to weaken as it moves closer to Okinawa. The typhoon was last located approximately 400km south southwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 175kph gusting to 215kph. Mawar is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

JMA has now issued High Waves Warning for Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands.It has also issued Gale, Thunderstorm, and Storm Surge Advisories for the whole region.

Latest radar data from Okinawa, showing the outer bands starting to move into Okinawa. Expect light rains to begin at around 8pm tonight. The heaviest of rains will likely occur from 12am to 3pm tomorrow. There could be as much as 150mm of rain in some areas in this region for tomorrow. For the latest radar date from the area, click HERE (JMA Website)

Furthermore, easterly winds of up to 35kph are already being reported around Okinawa, while stronger winds of up to 45kph are being reported in Miyakojima Islands. As Mawar inches closer, we are expecting the area to start feeling tropical storm-force winds at 9pm tonight. Strongest winds will likely be felt from 3am to 6pm tomorrow. Since Daito Islands will be in the right front quadrant of Mawar, we expect those areas to feel the brunt of the storm. Winds of up to 180kph could be possible in those islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Image above shows the center of Mawar starting to degrade, finally succumbing to dry air, higher wind shear, and cooler sea temperatures. Nevertheless, DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the storm as it is still a powerful typhoon, and will still be one by the time it gets near Okinawa later tonight. The blue line represents our Typhoon Timeline. More info on this timeline (note that we are using Japan Time here!); it is also NOT OFFICIAL! For more forecasts and warnings, please visit JMA or the Kadena Weather for the latest, do not use the information below for life or death decisions!

Typhoon Timeline:

9pm JST: 300km south southwest of Okinawa. Okinawa and nearby islands starting to feel TS-force winds (65kph or more). Rains begin for the region.
12am JST: 220km south of Okinawa. TS-force winds affecting the islands along with moderate rains
3am JST: 180km south southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained winds and Typhoon-force gusts possible in Okinawa (peak winds up to 160kph possible). Higher winds likely in Daito Islands (120kph or more). Heavy rain also likely.
6am JST: 180km southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained and Typhoon-force gusts continue for Okinawa. Typhoon-force sustained and gusts likely for Daito Islands (peak winds up to 180kph possible). Heavy rain continue for the islands. Mawar also leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
9am JST: 190km east southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained and Typhoon-force gusts continue for Okinawa. Typhoon-force sustained and gusts likely for Daito Islands (peak winds up to 180kph possible). Heavy rain continue for the islands.
12pm JST: 230km east of Okinawa, 120km west of Daito Islands. TS-Force winds continue with occasional typhoon-force gusts for Okinawa. Strong typhoon-force winds of up to 180kph possible for Daito Islands! Heavy rain continue in the area.
3pm JST: 270km east northeast of Okinawa, 130km northwest of Daito Islands, 200km southeast of Amami Island. TS-force winds continue for Okinawa although winds starting to weaken. Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito, while TS-Force sustained possible for Amami. Heavy rain possible for Okinawa and Amami, likely to continue for Daito.
6pm JST: 370km northeast of Okinawa, 170km north of Daito, 220km southeast of Amami. Winds starting to back down for Okinawa, TS-force gusts still likely. TS-force sustained with typhoon-force gusts likely for Daito, TS-force winds continue for Amami. Heavy rain continues for Amami and Daito, lighter rains for Okinawa.

After moving near Okinawa tomorrow, Mawar will start to rapidly weaken as cooler temperatures, dry air, and strong wind shear take their toll on the system. We forecast it to weaken to a tropical storm by Wednesday as it moves south of Shikoku. Due to the upper-air patterns, we are forecast Mawar to remain far south of Mainland Japan. It will then start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone by Wednesday. It is forecast to pass around 400km southeast of Tokyo by Thursday morning. Even though it's far away, still expect rough surf all across the Southern and Eastern Seaboard of Japan. Furthermore, Mawar is forecast to pass within 200km of the Izu Islands (which are located 280km south of Tokyo) and tropical-storm force winds and light to moderate rains are possible. There could even be stray rain showers moving into Honshu by this time although no severe stormy conditions are forecast.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Just a quick update on Invest 97W. This low pressure area was last located approximately 580km east of Davao. It still has a low chance of developing into a cyclone, due to the moderate wind shear in the region. Nevertheless, we'll keep watching this system as it moves closer to Mindanao.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 060412

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