Saturday, June 2, 2012

Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) Update #5

Typhoon Mawar (Bagyong Ambo) continues to intensify as it starts to move away from Luzon. The storm was last located approximately 360km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph gusting to 185kph. TY Mawar is moving northward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, Signal #1 issued by PAGASA remains for Batanes Group of Islands and Calayan Island.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Mawar strengthened overnight as conditions remain favorable in the region. However, recent images suggest that some dry air has been entrained into the system which has slowed down the intensification. The eye feature hasn't really cleared yet but it is somewhat discernible now on the visible imagery. The image also shows the storm pulling away from Luzon, however, extreme Northern Luzon (especially those areas under Signal #1) should still expect occasional rains and gusty winds. Conditions should clear tonight and into tomorrow.

Microwave image also shows that the eyewall is partially open, particularly on the northwestern side--which could be due to the dry air entrainment mentioned earlier. Nevertheless, banding remains strong and the eyewall should reform today.

MWI Image from NRLMRY

Forecast remains generally the same. However, most forecast tracks continue to trend north and bring Mawar much closer to Okinawa. The recent intensification trends could also mean that the storm will peak higher than earlier thought. Timing for its closest approach on Okinawa remains at around Tuesdsay morning as a strong Category-2 Typhoon. It will then turn more to the east and start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone by Wednesday, eventually avoiding Mainland Japan.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 060312

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