Saturday, June 2, 2012

Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) Update #4

Mawar (Bagyong Ambo) has been upgraded into a typhoon by the JTWC as it continues to intensify east of Luzon. Please do note that JMA (official warning center for the Pacific) is still categorizing Mawar as a Severe Tropical Storm. Typhoon Mawar (Ambo) was last located approximately 240km east northeast of Ilagan, Isabela. From JTWC, maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph gusting to 150kp. Mawar is currently moving north northwestward at 10kph.

For our Video Update which was released an hour ago, click HERE

MW Image of SSMI from NRLMRY

Typhoon Mawar continues to develop at a fairly good pace and is now developing a strong eyewall based on the latest microwave image. The eye is not yet visible on infra-red nor on visible satellite, however, the image above confirms the continuous intensification of the storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The expansive central dense overcast remains well offshore keeping the strongest winds and heaviest rains away from Eastern Luzon. Nevertheless, as of 5pm Public Storm Warning Signal #2 has been issued for Batanes Group of Islands and Calayan Islands. While Signal #1 remains for Northern Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, and Babuyan Island. And while the stormiest conditions are over the sea, we are still expecting light to moderate rains to affect majority of Luzon as the storm enhances SW Monsoon. Heaviest of rains could be found along the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon. Areas here could receive up to 100mm of rain in the next 24 hours. Scattered showers should also be expected for the rest of Luzon and those rains could bring up to 50mm bringing the threat of flooding especially in Metro Manila. Gusty winds could also affect eastern sections of the country with some stations reporting wind gusts of up to 50kph! Winds of tropical storm-force (around 65 to 100kph) could occasionally be felt in the areas mentioned, especially those under Signal #2 warnings. Rough surf will also be a concern so please refrain from sailing in these waters.

The forecast for Typhoon Mawar remains generally the same. We expect it to start turning to the northeast tomorrow morning as it rounds the SubTropical Ridge. Conditions should start to improve in Luzon tomorrow afternoon although sporadic showers will still be present as the SW Monsoon is enhanced by the storm. Next area of concern will be Okinawa and the surrounding islands. Recent trends have shifted the forecast tracks to the north possibly bringing Mawar closer to Okinawa than previously forecasted.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast is in line with the recent model consensus and closely resembles that of JTWC. Our track takes Mawar within 250km of Okinawa by Tuesdsay morning, passing in the area between Okinawa and Minami Islands. By then, it will have intensified into a Category 2 Typhoon with winds of up to 160kph. The zonal flow pattern should help keep Mawar from moving farther north. Therefore, we expect it to stay well south of Mainland Japan for the next 5 days. Nevertheless, any shift in the forecast could definitely have impacts down the road so please keep checking back here for the latest updates and forecasts.

Our next update will be tomorrow morning.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 060212

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