Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Typhoon Guchol Update #17

Typhoon Guchol is now making landfall along the Kii Peninsula, particularly near Shionomisaki area in the Wakayama Prefecture (Kinki/Kansai Region). Guchol was last located near Kushimoto or about 130km south southeast of Osaka. Based on the latest data from Japan, we've chosen to side with JMA's latest analysis since it seems JTWC's analysis is somewhat low (they have already downgraded Guchol to a Tropical Storm). With that said, maximum sustained winds seem to be around 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Guchol is currently moving northeastward at 55kph.

Radar Image from JMA

Radar data from JMA shows the eyewall now moving onto land. Pressure reports from the region indicate a minimum pressure of around 964mb and winds along the Kinki Region indicate circulation is now inland. Areas on the southeastern tip of Kii Peninsula recorded the strongest winds with gusts of up to 130kph being felt in one area there. Mie Prefecture is also reporting increasing winds of 60 to 80kph. Along the strong winds, very heavy rain continue to fall across Kinki and now spreading into Chubu Region. Many areas are already reporting amounts of more than 100mm. There could be another 200 to 300mm falling tonight, especially in the mountainous areas. Due to this, JMA has issued a plethora of warnings and advisories concerning the heavy rain, typhoon, and high waves. Please coordinate with the local authorities for the latest OFFICIAL warnings and forecasts that pertain to your area. For the latest radar images around Japan, please click HERE (Japan Meteorological Agency Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image shows Guchol making landfall along the Kii Peninsula. The system has maintained the tight core although the interaction with the westerlies is becoming evident with dry air being entrained into the system. The western side of the storm is now having lesser convection whilst the eastern side remains active and where the heaviest of rains are found. The abundant rain clouds will continue to push on tonight and will overspread Honshu.

Guchol is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm after landfall and will continue to race through Kinki, Chubu, and eventually the Tohoku Region. Heavy rain should be expected along the path of Guchol. Areas to the southeast, particularly in the Kanto Plains (Tokyo Area) should also expect rains as Guchol's circulation becomes embedded along the baroclinic zone. Across the areas mentioned, rainfall amounts of up to 300mm are possible, especially in mountainous areas. Guchol will exit into the Pacific Ocean tomorrow morning and could complete extra-tropical transition later tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Meanwhile, further south, a front enhanced by Guchol and extending all the way to Tropical Storm Talim in the South China Sea is bringing moderate to heavy rain across Northern Taiwan, Okinawa and the surrounding islands. Some areas here have reported 30 to 50mm of rain have fallen so far. There could be another 50 to 100mm falling tonight. Rains could remain tomorrow as the front continues to move eastward. However, another batch of showers could approach the Ryukyu Islands by Thursday as Talim moves into the South China Sea. Eventually this storm will move into Kyushu and the rest of Mainland Japan, bringing yet another round of rain for them. Continue to keep monitoring the developments of TS Talim and we have our own separate updates for the said storm so please check that out. Our latest update for Talim can be found HERE.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 061912

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