Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Talim Update #4

Tropical Storm Talim continues to move across the South China Sea. It was last located approximately 320km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Talim is moving east northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Moderate to strong wind shear is impacting Talim's organization with the northern half of the storm almost convection-free. However, the low level circulation center is still located underneath the big cluster of activity with strong convection. An earlier satellite analysis also reveals winds of 70 to 80kph continue to persist, particularly on the southeastern side of the storm.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Talim will continue to move towards Taiwan and will approach the country tomorrow afternoon. Widespread heavy rains, gusty winds, and high waves will impact the country, including the Fujian Province of China tomorrow and will last through the night and into Thursday morning. The long line of showers enhanced by Talim will also affect Luzon bringing rainfall amounts of up to 150mm in some areas. TS Talim will then move to the East China Sea and will start weakening as it gets embedded along the strong westerlies. It is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu, Japan by Friday morning as a transitioning extra-tropical cyclone.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 061912

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