Typhoon Guchol (Butchoy) Update #14

Note: For the latest update on a newly formed system in the South China Sea--TD 06W (Talim)--please click HERE

Typhoon Guchol (Bagyong Butchoy) is now beginning to weaken as it moves nearer towards the Japanese Islands. It has been downgraded from a Super Typhoon but still remains a very powerful Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 230kph with gusts of up to 275kph. TY Guchol was last located approximately 480km south of Okinawa. It is currently moving northward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite data suggest that the eyewall replacement cycle may have completed. The storm is also beginning to weaken due to decreasing sea temperatures. In fact, the recent warning of JTWC of 125kt may be a tad too high. Nevertheless, we still expect Guchol to maintain its strong Typhoon intensity as it nears Okinawa later today. This weakening is obviously good news for Okinawa as it means our forecast winds for them will be weaker.

Note that the typhoon timeline below is NOT OFFICIAL! Please go to JMA for the official warnings and forecasts for your area.

Typhoon Guchol Timeline:

12pm JST: 400km south of Okinawa. Outer rain bands nearing the islands.
3pm JST: 280km south of Okinawa. Outer rain bands affecting the islands. Sustained winds of 40 to 50kph with gusts of up to 80kph possible.
6pm JST: 190km southeast of Okinawa. Moderate to heavy rains affecting the islands. Sustained winds of up to 80kph possible with gusts of up to 120kph.
9pm JST: 120km east southeast of Okinawa, 250km west southwest of Daitojima. Tropical Storm-force sustained winds of up to 100kph possible with typhoon-force gusts of up to 140kph. Stronger winds for Daito Islands. Typhoon-force winds of 120 to 160kph possible there. Heavy rain continues to fall.
12am JST: 160km east northeast of Okinawa, 170km west northwest of Daito. Tropical Storm-force winds continue for Okinawa. Typhoon-force winds of around 160kph still possible for Daito. Tropical Storm winds starting for Amami.
3am JST: 270km northeast of Okinawa, 180km northwest of Daito, 140km east southeast of Amami. TS winds starting to weaken in Okinawa, winds in Daito Islands weakening to TS-force winds. Amami continues to get Tropical Storm-force winds. Rains continue throughout the region.

We'll have more updates later this afternoon.
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Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 061812