Monday, June 18, 2012

Tropical Storm Talim Update #2

Talim has intensified and is now a Tropical Storm. The system was last located approximately 380km south southwest of Hong Kong or about 260km east of Hainan Province. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Talim is currently moving east northeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Talim (international name contributed by PAGASA) continues to consolidate nicely in the South China Sea. Latest IR Image showing a forming central dense overcast with strong convective activity particularly south of the low level circulation center. The image also shows much of the clouds are situated south of Hong Kong and are not directly affecting any land mass so far except the Province/Island of Hainan. This Chinese Province has received anywhere between 50 to 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours and since Talim is moving slowly, we are still expecting rain here for another 24 to 36 hours. Talim is also enhancing monsoon activity for the western part of Luzon in the Philippines. Areas here have received rainfall amounts of 40 to 80mm overnight.

Tropical Storm Talim will continue to intensify as it moves to the northeast. Wind shear is moderate (15 to 20kts) although warm sea surface temperatures should still help it intensify a bit more although we're not really expecting it to become a typhoon. Computer models diverge in the 2 to 4 day-forecasts with some models bringing Talim towards SE China (Fujian Province) while some bring it over Taiwan. Our forecast will basically be taking the middle track of the varied solutions.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track takes Talim through the northeastern part of Taiwan, possibly brushing Taipei, by Wednesday morning as a possible Severe Tropical Storm. Due to the abundance of moisture courtesy of the monsoon, there could be very heavy rainfall in the country. Furthermore, Talim will likely enhance the SW Monsoon for parts of Western Philippines bringing rain there as well. Then, Talim is forecast to move into the East China Sea, passing west of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands. By that time, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will quickly weaken the storm. It is forecast to start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it makes its way into Kyushu by Thursday night.

We'll have another update regarding Talim tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 061812

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