Saturday, June 9, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 90W failed to strengthen throughout today and in fact, weakened instead. The LPA was last located approximately 250km south of Chuuk or about 1,200km southeast of Guam. Despite the apparent weakening, JTWC is keeping its TCFA which was issued earlier this morning.

IR Image from NOAA

The system still has a low-level center which is highlighted above. An OSCAT pass earlier today reveals a circulation with winds of 30 to 35kph winds near the center. However, the 90W barely has strong convective activity, particularly near the center. Recent changes in the upper-levels of the atmosphere is bringing non-conducive conditions in the region, which could be the cause of the absence of thunderstorms from 90W. Nevertheless, atmospheric conditions is still forecast to become marginally favorable for tropical cyclone development. We'll keep watching 90W overnight, especially as the diurnal maximum is supposed to kick in during these times, looking for improvements with regard to its development.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 060912

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