Friday, June 8, 2012

Tropical Update

A developing low pressure area was spotted today near Pohnpei (Micronesia). Invest 90W was last located approximately 260km southeast of Pohnpei or about 1860km southeast of Guam. The JTWC has rated 90W as "MEDIUM" in terms of development potential. Invest 90W could become a cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The large LPA seen above is exhibiting good outflow although convective activity has remained fragmented. An ASCAT analysis taken earlier this morning shows the low level circulation with winds of 30 to 35kph. Pohnpei, which is the nearest station to the LPA, is reporting winds of around 20kph with sea level pressure of around 1008mb.

Computer models continue to hint at a cyclone formation although most of them are showing a slower progression. Conditions are favorable for development with warm sea temperatures, abundant moisture, and weak to moderate wind shear. If 90W does develop and become a storm, it is still too far away to tell if it'll hit the Philippines.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 060812

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