Thursday, June 28, 2012

Tropical Storm Doksuri Update #6

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Formerly Bagyong Dindo) managed to strengthen overnight despite the strong northeasterly shear. Right now, the system is beginning to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility. TS Doksuri was last located approximately 360km northwest of Laoag or about 430km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Doksuri is currently moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has finally dropped all Signal Warnings. Latest reports so far indicate no casualties and no major infrastructure damage across Luzon. However, Doksuri did bring heavy rains yesterday across many parts of Northern Luzon. Anywhere between 50 and 100mm were recorded, with the highest being across Ilocos Norte, and the Cordillera Provinces. Right now, rains are tapering down in Western Luzon although there will still be rain showers across Central and Southern Luzon, and even into Visayas as the SW Monsoon is being enhanced by the storm.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continue to depict an exposed low-level center with the rain clouds displaced to the southwest. Last night, a massive convective occurred prompting some agencies to upgrade it back to Tropical Storm strength. Nevertheless, we expect Doksuri to weaken again as the wind shear remains strong in the region.

Forecast tracks have been shifted slightly to the west and we now expect Doksuri to make landfall just west of Hong Kong by early Saturday morning. Strong waves, gusty winds, and heavy rains should be expected along this region especially those to the west of the center of circulation. Folks living here should monitor HKO and CMA for the latest warnings and forecasts.

Meanwhile, 96W continues to consolidate southeast of Palau and could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 96W indicating a HIGH chance of development. Computer models do continue to show a slight strengthening and could head towards the Philippines next week. We'll have more updates about this system as well as Doksuri later in our afternoon update.
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 062912

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