Saturday, May 26, 2012

Typhoon Sanvu Update #11

Typhoon Sanvu is now beginning to weaken as it continues to move east of the Ogasawara Islands. The center was last located approximately 200km south southeast of Chichi-Jima. Maximum sustained winds have been lowered to 130kph gusting to 155kph. Sanvu is currently moving east northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As you can see on this infra-red image, the eye is still clearly visible on Sanvu. Nevertheless, convection is rapidly weakening and the eyewall is beginning to collapse based on microwave data (not shown here). Despite this, we still expect Sanvu to maintain that typhoon intensity for at least another 6 hours.

Typhoon Sanvu passed within 50 kilometers of Iwo Jima earlier this morning. The airport reported heavy rain and strong winds for more than 6 hours with the highest gust being around 155kph. The minimum pressure recorded was 978mb. These observations correspond well with the analysis by both the JTWC and JMA. Latest report out of Iwo Jima is still indicating tropical storm-force winds and occasional rain showers.

The storm will now move within 200km to the east of Chichi-Jima later tonight. JMA has issued a High Wind Warning as well as Gale and Thunderstorm Watches brought by the outer bands of Sanvu. Due to the distance, we are only expecting tropical-storm winds and rain amounts of around 50mm. Weather conditions in the islands should improve by tomorrow.

Sanvu should begin encountering unfavorable conditions tonight and is forecast to rapidly weaken tomorrow. It could become extra-tropical by as early as tomorrow afternoon (Sunday) as it interacts with the baroclinic zone.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 052612

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