Friday, March 30, 2012

Typhoon Pakhar Update #5

In a somewhat unexpected turn of event, Typhoon Pakhar has actually weakened overnight. It still remains a typhoon, though, according to the JTWC despite Dvorak numbers falling. The sudden weakening could be attributed to the diurnal minimum common with tropical cyclones. It could also be the sudden increase of wind shear overnight. Right now, convection is weak and remains mostly on the southern periphery. However, recent microwave images still show that the inner structure is still intact and that the eye is actually partially visible on the IR (image seen below).

IR Image from NRLMRY

Forecast remains unchanged. Pakhar is forecast to regain much of its strength today. It will then start moving northwestward and make landfall tomorrow morning east of Ho Chi Minh.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 033112

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