Saturday, March 31, 2012

Tropical Storm Pakhar Update #6

Pakhar has started to reorganize today after losing much of its convection overnight, leading to it being downgraded into a tropical storm this morning. Right now, Pakhar remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 110kph gusting to 140kph. It was last located approximately 340km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh and is moving westward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The infra-red image above shows convection beginning to form again, particularly on the southern and eastern sides of the storm. We've also noted some towering clouds (indicated by bright yellow--cold temperatures) very near the center. All of this increase in activity seems to coincide with the diurnal maximum as well as a slight dip in the wind shear (now around 10 knots).

The IR image also shows clouds beginning to reach Ho Chi Minh and the rest of Southern Vietnam. Accompanying these clouds are light to moderate rains which could bring up to 10mm of rain per hour. Unfortunately, radar coverage in this part of Vietnam so we are only relying on airport reports and satellite images for observations.

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Due to the weakening trend in the past 12 hours, TS Pakhar has managed to stay south further than anticipated. As a result, we have moved our forecast track south and are bringing Pakhar within 100km to the east of Ho Chi Minh upon landfall tomorrow morning. As it moves further inland, we expect it to weaken considerably into a Tropical Depression. Pakhar is then forecast to turn more to the north, passing around 250km east of Phnom Penh by Sunday afternoon. It is forecast that Pakhar could dissipate by as early as Monday morning over Cambodia. Its remnants, however, is still expected to bring rains across much of Indochina throughout the coming days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Please coordinate with the authorities, if you are living in the forecast path of the storm. Stay safe everyone!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 033112

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