Thursday, January 26, 2012

Tropical Update

A cold front is diving down the Philippines today bringing cool winds and scattered showers. Rain continues for parts of Borneo and Indochina as well. Cold with chances of snow showers for East Asia.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tail-end of cold front is producing widely scattered showers across Eastern Visayas, as well as Eastern Mindanao. Rainfall amounts range generally between 30 to 60mm. Behind the front, cool NE winds are bringing temperatures down across Northern Luzon with places like Laoag dipping into mid to upper teens, while elevated areas like Baguio are seeing temperatures go to the low teens. These winds are also increasing wave heights along northern and eastern sections of Luzon. Converging winds are also bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms across Borneo Island with amounts ranging from 50 to 100mm. While much of the showers are confined over water, we expect showers will move into parts of Indochina by this weekend. Places like Southern Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula could see increased chances for rain within the next 2 days.

Across Eastern Asia, we are seeing a slight rise in temperatures although another cooldown is expected next week. Chances for snow remains high along the western areas of Honshu; snow could pile up to another 50cm over higher terrain. Cold temperatures over the Korean Peninsula with negative single digits across South Korea while negative teens over North Korea. A mix of light freezing rain, snow, and rain, will affect Southern and Eastern China over the next two days.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL


Cooler temperatures today, together with breezy conditions. Mostly clear though with some cloudiness over Eastern Sections. No rain in sight although left slight chances for precipitation throughout the forecast period. Some light rain could form by Sunday as a weak front develops north of Taiwan.


Cold front is now moving across Visayas as seen on satellite. This is producing cloudiness and scattered rain showers across the central and eastern areas. Only light rain amounts expected. Chances of rain will remain until tomorrow; clearing expected by Saturday except for Eastern Visayas (Samar-Leyte Area).


Some light to moderate rain showers are affecting Central and Eastern Mindanao today. Rainfall amounts could range from 40 to 80mm. Rains should dissipate tomorrow and clearer weather expected by Saturday. A weak tropical wave well south of Guam could approach by Sunday, computer models though are showing this to stay south of Mindanao so only put 40% for Davao by that time.

We'll have another update by Sunday (January 29, 2012)
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 012612

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