Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Tropical Update

Heavy rain continues to dominate the Southern Philippines, rubbing a salt in the wound as they say. More than 200mm have fallen in the past 24 hours alone in some locations in Mindanao. Areas in Region X (near CDO and Iligan) have also recorded 150 to almost 200mm. Furthermore, places in Visayas such as Cebu, Negros and Leyte Provinces have also reported heavy rains. We have created a simple graphic below showing the rainfall accumulations in the past 24 hours. Data were collected from PAGASA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and NASA's TRMM. Please do note that there may be discrepancies with the data so please use them with caution.

The heavy rains that the region have been experiencing is due to the combination of ITCZ and a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) that moved through Mindanao yesterday. This batch of showers will continue to move slowly to the west and will eventually affect Indochina by the end of the week.Furthermore, a cold front continues to trigger scattered rain showers across Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas.

IR Image from NOAA

We expect rainfall amounts to be around 100 to 200mm for much of Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Palawan will also have light to moderate rains that could amount up to 150mm. Luzon will see less rain although amounts of up to 100mm could still bring minor flooding. We do have this rainfall forecast map for the Philippines which shows accumulation for the next 24 hours. This is NOT OFFICIAL and should not be used in life or death situations.

The NE Monsoon behind this front is also bringing cooler temperatures across Northern Luzon. Places like Laoag have dipped into the upper teens last night. Baguio City have dropped to 12C on Christmas morning. Higher elevations in Central Luzon such as Antipolo and Tagaytay have also reported mid to upper teens within the past 2 nights.

Finally we have our 3-day Weather Forecast for Baguio, Manila, Cebu, and Davao. As always, THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. We'll have another update on December 30.

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122711

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