Friday, December 23, 2011

Tropical Update

All is well across the Western Pacific today, except of course the Southern Philippines where people are still trying to recover from the flooding disaster brought by Washi. Right now there are no tropical cyclones in the region although we are watching some interesting weather, as noted by our analysis below:

IR Image from NRLMRY

Cold temperatures prevail across much of Eastern Asia with some cities not climbing out of the freezing mark. Weather here is pretty dry, though, except with some passing snow showers. Meanwhile in Japan, a snowstorm is currently affecting Hokkaido and Eastern/Northern Honshu bringing with it heavy snow (up to 50cm in some areas) and strong winds. The LOW will be moving slowly eastward so expect improving conditions by next week, except in the northern portions of Japan.

As for the Philippines, the tail end of the cold front will be moving southwards, bringing cooler weather for much of Northern Luzon. In fact, we could see the coldest temps of the month so far this coming Sunday. Places like Laoag and Aparri could see temps as low as 19C. Northern islands such as Basco and Itbayat will see temps go down to almost 16C. Mountainous areas including Baguio City could get down to as low as 12C come Sunday morning and even Monday morning. This cold surge won't extend farther south though so places like Cebu and Davao will remain mild with temperatures ranging from 22 to 32C. Furthermore, eastern sections of the country will experience increased chances for precipitation due to wind convergence. Expect rains across the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

ITCZ is bringing rain showers across Palau and Yap today. There is also a weak circulation embedded although we are not expecting this to strengthen. Nevertheless, the ITCZ is forecast to move westwards in the coming days and could approach Mindanao by Sunday or Monday. Cities here will have scattered light to moderate rains.

We have released a 3-day Graphic Forecast for four cities in the Philippines. Please note that these forecasts are NOT OFFICIAL.

Next update will be on December 26, 2011. Until then, have a safe and happy Christmas!
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 122311

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