Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Tropical Depression 27W Update #2

Tropical Depression 27W has strengthened slightly as it moves westward across the Pacific. It was last located approximately 780km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph gusting to 75kph. TD 27W is moving westward at 25kph.

TD 27W gained strength overnight because of the favorable conditions in the region. There is, however, a slight increase in wind shear where 27W currently is situated. Because of this, the system does not look as organized as last night. Despite this setback, the main convection remains intact and there are still some cold cloud tops emanating from the cluster. Overall environment should remain favorable enough to allow 27W to strengthen to Tropical Storm strength, perhaps as early as today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TD 27W is forecast to continue moving westward and could approach Palau by later tonight/early tomorrow. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Tropical Storm Watches for Palau and Yap for strong winds beginning today. TD 27W will then continue moving westward, and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility early tomorrow morning (Thursday). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is very bullish in terms of development. Banking on improving outflow, weak wind shear, and high SSTs, JTWC is forecasting 27W to become a typhoon before moving into Northern Mindanao by Friday morning.

While the conditions do look good for continued development, we are forecasting a somewhat weaker peak wind. Depending on the rate of intensification, it is likely 27W will remain as a Tropical Storm and not become a typhoon. Of course, the forecasts can (and do) change.

IR Image from NOAA showing the locations of both 26W and TD 27W.

We have put out the final warning for 26W, for more info, please refer to our separate post.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 121411

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