Sunday, November 6, 2011

Tropical Update

It's been almost a month since our last update! The Pacific has been very quiet since.

Right now, however, we are watching two areas for possible tropical development. We have Invest 98W in the South China Sea and Invest 99W over Luzon.

Invest 98W has a developing low-level circulation center a few hundred kilometers east of Vietnam. ASCAT pass earlier today picked up the LLCC and is indicating winds of between 20 to 35kph. The low pressure area is in an area of low to moderate wind shear and slightly favorable sea temperatures. JTWC has upgraded its chances to "MEDIUM". Computer models are also showing a weak development out of this disturbance. The track is still too early to determine, though, due to the system still being premature.Nevertheless, expect enhanced rainfall across much of Vietnam and Southern Indochina.

Invest 99W, on the other hand, is now moving across Northern Luzon. Laoag Airport continues to report a drop in atmospheric pressure since this morning from a high of 1007mb down to 1003mb which could indicate that the center of the LPA is now passing through. Winds are still light, ranging from 10 to 30kph.The latest ASCAT pass is also suggesting a closed circulation center moving across Luzon. JTWC has kept 99W's chances to "LOW" due to proximity to land. Once it exits into the South China Sea, we could see better organization due to favorable shear and sea temperatures. Computer models not showing much development, however.

Furthermore, 99W is also bringing heavy rain across much of Luzon. Rainfall amounts of 100 to 150mm has been reported across Eastern and Central Luzon area. We expect rainy weather to continue here for another 2 to 3 days which could increase the chances for landslides and flooding.

IR Satellite Image from NRLMRY

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 110611

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