Saturday, October 1, 2011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #9

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) is nov exiting the island of Luzon and into the South China Sea. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 185kph gusting to 240kph after making landfall near Dinapigue, Isabela earlier this morning. Nalgae is now moving westward at a speed of 30kph. The center was last located approximately at these distances:

50km northwest of Baguio
20km west northwest of San Fernando, La Union
100km south southwest of Vigan
70km north northwest of Dagupan
50km northeast of Bolinao
240km north northwest of Manila

As of 5pm today, Signal #3 is still up for Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasina. Signal #2 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, and Pampanga. Signal #1 for Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Rizal, Cavite, Bataan, Bulacan , and Metro Manila.

The VIS Image below shows the circulation of Nalgae now moving over water. The storm still remains symmetrical with good outflow although the wind field is really small. Laoag Airport never recorded Tropical Storm sustained winds, and neither did Subic Airport (the two closest reporting airports near Nalgae). Compare that last week when these two airports were recording tropical storm and even typhoon-force winds during Nesat's passage over Luzon.


The IR Image also shows the CDO remains organized although cloud tops have significantly warmed due to land interaction. The whole storm is ragged-looking but still carries characteristics typical to strong typhoons moving over land. This activity has really brought heavy rains across parts of Northern and Central Luzon. In fact, Tuguegarao has already reported around 150mm of rain and we are still expecting 50 to 150mm throughout the night.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The good news is that Nalgae is now quickly moving away from Luzon. We expect it to be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by as early as tomorrow morning. The South China Sea is not really conducive for intensification so we think Nalgae will continue to weaken as it moves westward. However, it is likely that it'll maintain Typhoon Intensity as it makes landfall near Central Vietnam by Wednesday afternoon (local time).

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100111

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