Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Typhoon Roke Update #14

Typhoon Sonca has rapidly intensified last night while tracking just south of Japan. It actually briefly attained Category 4 status before weakening back to a Cat 3! It was last located approximately 280km south of Osaka or about 600km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph gusting to 230kph. Roke has accelerated and is currently moving north northeastward at 30kph.

Latest look at the IR image shows the cloud tops have begun to warm and are looking more fragmented and sheared, especially on the western half. A recent microwave image also shows the eyewall is now open and the SW periphery or Roke has begun to erode.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Microwave Satellite Image from NRLMRY

Radar image from JMA shows the bands of VERY HEAVY RAIN now falling across parts of Shikoku and Kii Peninsula. Expect rainfall rates of as much as 50mm in an hour!Also note that a front is bring rain over Honshu as well. Please listen to the news for possible evacuations and other OFFICIAL warnings and advisories from JMA.

Radar from JMA, for more images click HERE

Roke is now encountering increasing upper-level winds and cooler sea temperatures. We are forecasting it to continue moving northeastward and should make landfall later today in Shizuoka Prefecture as a potential Category 2/1 typhoon. Roke will then track across Kanto (near Tokyo by afternoon today), weakening to a Tropical Storm tonight, as it moves across Tohoku. Roke will exit Honshu by midnight and should move just south of Hokkaido.

We'll have more on Roke's forecast and potential impacts, as well as a possible cyclone formation near the Philippines this week, later on our afternoon update.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 092111

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