Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Typhoon Nesat Update #16

Typhoon Nesat has now moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 650km northwest of Manila or about 530km south southeast of Hong Kong. Nesat has weakened slightly and maximum sustained winds are now down to 120kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving westward at 20kph.

PAGASA has finally lowered all signal warnings in the Philippines. Weather there should continue improving and much of the country should experience good weather for at least 2 days, expect for some scattered showers brought about the SW Monsoon and also scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Nesat continues to exhibit a very large circulation with strong convective activity particularly in the eastern half. As we have mentioned earlier, Nesat suffered greatly with land interaction with Luzon. However, recent trends show that it might be recovering and that it could re-intensify again soon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nesat is forecast to continue moving west northwestward, passing well south of Hong Kong. It could make landfall in Hainan by Friday afternoon (local time). We are not expecting Nesat to intensify back into Category 2 anymore although it could still regain some strength and could make landfall with winds of up to 150kph. It all depends how Nesat re-organizes its structure. Conditions are slightly favorable for intensification anyway.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. For info on TS Nalgae, please refer to our separate post.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092811

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