Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Nalgae Update #2

Tropical Storm Nalgae continues to strengthen as it slowly moves toward the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 1,720km east northeast of Manila. It is moving westward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph gusting to 105kph. Nalgae should enter the PAR tomorrow.

Latest IR image show convective activity remaining primarily near the center, as well as improving outflow. You can also see in this image how small this storm is with a diameter of just around 300km!

IR Image from NRLMRY

The accompanying microwave image shows an eyewall that is nearly established on all quadrants! Forecast agencies might actually be underestimating this small storm right now.

Microwave from NRLMRY

Nesat is forecast to slowly intensify over the next 3 days as it moves across the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It could peak at around Category 2 typhoon before making landfall in Extreme Northern Luzon (around Cagayan and Ilocos Norte by Sunday afternoon (Philippine Time).

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092811

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