Friday, September 30, 2011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #7 (LANDFALL)

We apologize for the late update.

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) has quickly intensified over the night and is now a Category 4 typhoon! Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph gusting to 240kph. Nalgae is moving just south of west at 30kph. Here are the last locations for Nalgae:

95km ESE of Ilagan
160km SE of Tuguegarao
155km ENE of Santiago
110km NE of Casiguran
330km NE of Manila

As of 5am today, PAGASA has raised Signal #3 for Isabela, Northern Aurora Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan. Signal #2 for Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bulacan, Northern Quezon, and Polillo Island. Signal #1 for Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Rizal, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, Babuyan Is., Calayan Group of Is., and Metro Manila.

Based on the IR Image below, it does look like Nalgae is still strengthening and could actually have higher winds than what is currently being listed here.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest Radar Image from Baler shows Nalgae's well-defined eye and the bands of moderate rain wrapping around the storm. As you can see, much of the light rain is now affecting Isabela and Southern Cagayan. Conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout today and areas here could see more than 200mm of rain by the time all is said and done. Typhoon force winds extend up to 90km away from the center (120kph). The strongest of winds (more than 210kph) extend up to 15km away from the center.

Baler Radar from PAGASA

Here's the forecast timeline:

9-10am: Making landfall along Southern Isabela, approx. 50km southeast of Ilagan
10-11am: Moving along Isabela, 35km northeast of Santiago; weakening to Category 3
11am-12pm: Moving over Ifugao, approx. 30km east southeast of Lagawe; weakening to Category 2
12-1pm:  Moving over Ifugao, approx. 20km west southwest of Lagawe
1-2pm: Moving into Benguet/Mt. Province, approx. 40km north of Baguio; weakening to Category 1
2-3pm: Moving into Southern Ilocos Sur, approx. 40km southwest of Candon
3-4pm: Over Ilocos Sur, approx. 70km south of Vigan
4-5pm: Exiting into South China Sea, approx. 40km northwest of San Fernando

Remember those are only approximates based on Nalgae's present movement. Always tune in to your local news for official forecasts and advisories. Next update will be around 2pm this afternooon. Stay Safe!
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 100111

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