Friday, September 30, 2011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #6

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) continues to quickly intensify over the Philippine Sea. The center was last located approximately 650km northeast of Manila, 510km east southeast of Aparri, or about 490km east of Tuguegarao. Nalgae is moving westward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 175kph gusting to 220kph. This makes Nalgae a Category 2 typhoon.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has now raised Signal #3 for Cagayan and Isabela. Signal #2 for Northern Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Group of Islands, and Babuyan Group of Island. Signal #1 for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Abra.

Latest IR Image shows the ever improving structure of Nalgae with strong convective activity and the eye becoming more organized.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nalgae is forecast to continue intensifying and could become a Major Category 3 Typhoon later tonight. It will likely maintain that intensity as it makes landfall tomorrow in the Cagayan/Isabela Border. Nalgae will then move through these provinces and into Kalinga-Apayo, Abra and weakening to a Cat 1 by the afternoon, and exit through Ilocos Norte by Saturday evening. It should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Forecast Timeline

9-10am: Landfall in Cagayan/Isabela, around 50km east of Tuguegarao
10-11am: Moving over Tuguegarao as a Category 2
11-12pm: Moving over Kalinga-Apayao, north of Tabuk
12-1pm: Weakening to a Category 1 over the Cordillera Mountains
1-2pm: Moving over Abra
2-3pm: Moving northeast of Bangued
3-4pm: Moving over Ilocos Norte
4-5pm: Moving 50km south of Laoag
5-6pm: Exiting into South China Sea

Please remember that timeline above is only based on the current forecasts and present movement of Nalgae. Always make sure to listen to the news for OFFICIAL warnings and advisories specifically for your area.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay Safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 093011

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