Thursday, September 29, 2011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #5

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) has quickly intensified last night as it moves ever closer toward Luzon. It is now located approximately 1,000km east northeast of Manila and is moving westward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph gusting to 195kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has begun to raise Signal #1 for Cagayan, Isabela, and the Babuyan Group of Islands.

Latest IR image shows the very strong convective activity indicated by cold cloud tops. You can also make out the center of the storm due to the warm spot.


Despite the loss of excellent outflow regions, we are still expecting Nalgae to continue intensifying today due to weak wind shear and very warm waters over the Philippine Sea. We are now expecting a peak intensity of around 100 to 110 knots which would put it to the Category 3 typhoon status. Computer model and agency forecasts continue to shift their track to the south. We are still forecasting a landfall somewhere in Cagayan by Saturday afternoon. Nalgae will then weaken to a Cat 1 as it crosses Northern Luzon. It should exit through Ilocos Norte by early Sunday morning.

We'll have more update later this afternoon.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 093011

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