Thursday, September 29, 2011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #4

Nalgae (Quiel) has been upgraded into a typhoon today. The storm was last located approximately 1,320km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Nalgae has also accelerated as it moves across the Philippine Sea--west southwestward at a speed of 20kph.

Latest VIS shows the location in relation to the Philippines. The outflow to the north has been cut off due to the TUTT Cell moving away to the east. Nevertheless. Nalgae maintains an amazing presentation for a small storm and has actually sported an eye earlier this morning.


This IR image also shows the intense convective activity within the center with very cold cloud tops. The dry air and subsidence to the northwest has begun to fill which is allowing Nalgae to somewhat increase in size and look more symmetrical on the satellite.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The following microwave image shows what is happening under the cloud shield of Nalgae. You can kinda make out the center of the storm with the eyewall open to the south. The MWI is still showing some pretty intense activity around the northern periphery.


Typhoon Nalgae should continue intensifying as it moves westward due to weak wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. It could reach Category 2 typhoon intensity and peak just below Cat 3 before making landfall in Northeast Cagayan by Saturday night. Computer models are now beginning to converge on a solution which would take Nalgae towards Northern Luzon this weekend. Our track is positioned slightly south of the consensus to account for the recent southward movement of the storm. Nalgae will then cross Luzon, weakening to a Cat 1. It could regain intensity as it exits into the South China Sea by early next week.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We won't have any video updates for today. Next updates will be tomorrow.
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 092911

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