Sunday, September 4, 2011

TS Talas and TS Noru Update w/ Video

Tropical Storm Talas continues to weaken as it slowly moves away from Honshu. It was last located approximately 200km northwest of Kyoto. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 65kph gusting to 85kph. Talas is moving north northeastward at 10kph.

Widespread heavy rainfall is now beginning to die down for much of Chugoku and Kansai/Kinki Regions. Radar image from JMA still showing some scattered showers across Kii Peninsula and also some showers in the Chubu and Kanto Region. Expect rainfall amounts of around 200mm or less for today.

Radar Image from JMA

Here is a rainfall map that I did based on JMA Weather Stations and you can see the extent of rain coverage as well as the amounts that fell for the past two days. The heaviest rain amounts are found in Shikoku and Kii Peninsula, particularly the prefectures of Wakayama, Mie, and Nara. Some areas actually reported rains of more than 1200mm! Number of deaths continue to rise due to swollen rivers and landslides so please be careful! Hundreds of thousands of people have been ordered to evacuate due to the heavy rains.


The good news is that Talas is now moving away and is not really expected to bring heavy rains anymore. JTWC has actually put out their final warning for this storm. The forecast is for Talas to continue moving northward. It could move towards the Russian Far East as early as Monday as an extra-tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Noru

Tropical Storm Noru continues to speed northward well southeast of Japan. It was last located approximately 1200km southeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph gusting to 100kph. Noru is moving northward at 35kph.

Forecasts for Noru are in good agreement amongst weather agencies and computer models. Noru is not expected to make landfall in Japan so that's a good news! It will track northward and could approach the Kuril Islands in Russia by early next week. It could intensify further over the next 2 days as the conditions are somewhat favorable.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Video Update which also includes discussion on Tropical Storms Lee and Katia in the Atlantic Basin.

We'll have another update by tomorrow morning.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 090411

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