Saturday, September 3, 2011

TS Talas and TS 16W Update

Tropical Storm Talas weakens as it moves over the Sea of Japan. It was last located approximately 210km west northwest of Kyoto or about 220km northwest of Osaka. Talas is moving northward at 15kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75kph gusting to 100kph.

Looking at the IR imagery, Talas has now become elongated as it begins to feel the effects of the strong upper-level westerlies. It still maintains a low-level circulation although convective activity is now waning. The winds on the surface have weakened for the most part with most Japanese weather stations reporting of winds around 30 to 50kph.


Rain, on the other hand, continues to fall heavily across the Kinki Region particularly in the prefectures of Mie and Shiga. These bands can produce up to 50mm of rain in just one hour, coupled with thunderstorms and a small possibility of weak tornadic activities. Most places in Japan have already received rain of between 200 to 500mm and we still expect 200mm more to fall today. Many evacuation orders were already issued in several prefectures so please always listen to the news just in case your area needs to be evacuated too!

Radar image from JMA, for more images please click HERE

TS Talas will accelerate to the northeast today and should stay offshore. It will still bring rains toward Kinki, Chubu, and Tohoku Regions in Honshu as well as Hokkaido. Talas is expected to become extra-tropical as it approaches the Russian Far East by Sunday/Monday.

Tropical Storm 16W, meanwhile, continues to intensify as it moves northward, well southeast of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph gusting to 100kph. TS 16W is moving north northeastward at a speed of 25kph.

Computer models are in fairly good agreement that 16W will generally stay east of Honshu throughout next week. It could, however, brush the easternmost part of Hokkaido by Thursday so we'll have to watch that. JTWC remains very aggressive in terms of intensity forecast--expecting 16W to become a typhoon as early as Monday. Conditions remain somewhat favorable although shear has increased in that area this past 24 hours.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 090411

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