Sunday, September 11, 2011

Tropical Update

For today's Tropical Update we have Invest 91W and 93W. No tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific.

Invest 91W continues to slowly develop just outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It is expected to enter the PAR later tonight. Since PAGASA is already classifying 91W as a Tropical Depression (just like JMA), they are going to give it a local name of "Onyok". Right now, 91W still looks fragmented with an exposed low-level circulation center and weak banding. Maximum sustained winds are around 40 to 50kph. 91W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY showing the center (red arrow), movement (green arrow), and the PAR (blue lines).

Invest 91W could become a cyclone within the next 24 hours--JTWC has already released a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert or TCFA which indicates a "HIGH" chance of development. Computer models bring this storm towards Okinawa and will not really affect the Philippines although it could enhance the SW Monsoon this week.

Another system we are watching is 93W in the South China Sea. The disturbance is still embedded in the monsoon and is not really exhibiting any sort of characteristics found in developing storms. Nevertheless, it is enhancing precipitation across Indochina and Southern China, bringing heavy rainfall amounts of around 100mm in 24 hours. 93W is also helping to enhance showers across Luzon with amounts of 50 to 100mm.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 091111

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