Monday, September 12, 2011

Tropical Depression 18W Update #1

Tropical Depression 18W slows to a crawl as it continues to struggle with intensification. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph gusting to 85kph. 18W is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, moving westward at less than 10kph. 18W is expected to enter PAR later tonight and will then be named "Onyok" by PAGASA.

Latest VIS image continues to show a partially exposed low-level center with the main convection just off to the northeast.18W is sporting a huge circulation, just like Talas, which is hindering its development. Nevertheless, we are still expecting TD 18W to intensify and perhaps become a Tropical Storm tomorrow.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest forecasts from computer models showing a track towards Okinawa and away from the Philippines. Still some disagreement on the long-term track and speed although most models show a somewhat erratic track as the Subtropical Ridge that is currently steering 18W breaks down in 2 to 3 days.

Our forecast is slightly north of JMA and JTWC track and aligns mainly to the model consensus. Please do note that tracks can change so please stay tuned. As for Okinawa, it looks like the area will begin to see some windy conditions beginning late Wednesday night--due to 18W's huge wind field.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 091211

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