Friday, September 16, 2011

Tropical Storm Sonca Update #2

Tropical Storm Sonca has intensified over the past 24 hours as it moved westward well south of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph gusting to 105kph. Sonca is moving westward at 20kph. Despite having weak central convective activity, Sonca is looking more and more symmetrical with equatorward outflow. ASCAT pass also indicating winds of 30 to 40kts near the center.

Computer models continue to be in good agreement with Sonca's forecast track. The subtropical ridge to the north which is steering Sonca to the west is now beginning to weaken which will allow the storm to turn to the northwest tonight. The general idea still keeping with the re-curvature scenario, away from Japan.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Location of Sonca in relation to Japan, as well as the other systems in the Western Pacific. Invest 95W just northeast of Luzon still has a "LOW" chance of developing although not really expecting too much with this system due to its proximity with Roke's outflow. Invest 96W is in the South China Sea and could slowly developing next week.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 091611

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