Monday, September 19, 2011

Tropical Storm Roke Update #11

For updates on Typhoon Sonca, please read our other update.

Tropical Storm has maintained its strength while accelerating away from the Ryukyus. It was last located approximately 300km northeast of Okinawa or about 1,200km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are still at 110kph gusting to 140kph. Roke is moving northward at 20kph.

TS Roke is now making its closest pass on Amami-Oshima--about 110km east of the island. Places in these areas and also in Kikaijima are now reporting sustained winds of near TS-strength. A maximum gust of around 990kph and a minimum pressure of 987mb were also recorded an hour ago. Radar image from JMA showing the structure of Roke with bands of moderate rain affecting Amami Islands. Outer rain bands are also beginning to make their way into Kyushu.

Radar from JMA, for more images click HERE

This latest VIS image shows the circulation and cloud formation of Roke. An eye is trying to form but can't quite appear yet. An accompanying microwave image (not posted here) also shows a somewhat elongated center with the eyewall open on the southwestern quadrant.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

We are forecasting TS Roke to begin turning northeast later tonight-avoiding Kyushu. I'm still giving this storm a chance of becoming a typhoon tomorrow due to the wind shear still being weak and the slightly warmer waters-associated with the Kuroshio Current-likely fueling Roke's intensification. At the same time, we are also expecting Roke to begin accelerating northeastward tomorrow and will pass south of Shikoku. It is forecast to make landfall in the prefecture of Shizuoka by Wednesday afternoon (Japan Time). It will then pass across the Tokyo Metropolitan Area as a Tropical Storm by Wednesday night. Roke will then exit Honshu and pass south of Hokkaido by Thursday morning. It will then shoot to the northeast as a transitioning cyclone.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. Please stay safe!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 091911

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