Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Quiel) Update #3

Tropical Storm Nalgae has finally entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been given a local name of "Quiel" by PAGASA. The storm was last located approximately 1,530km east northeast of Manila. It has intensified last night and now has maximum sustained winds of 100kph gusting to around 130kph. Nalgae is moving just south of west at a speed of 10kph.

Latest IR Image shows the improving structure of Nesat with cooling cloud tops and well-established poleward outflow. It has actually exhibited an established eyewall on the microwave image. The storm has also grown in size and now has a diameter of around 450km. The TUTT to the northwest that is inhibiting outflow on that side due to dry air and subsidence seems to be filling in and we should see Nesat continue intensifying for the next 2 days or so.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nalgae will continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea. It could be upgraded to a typhoon as early as tonight. It could peak at Category 2 strength before making landfall in extreme Northern Luzon by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time).

Another update coming up later this afternoon.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092911

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