Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #17

530pm EDITED: Changing the winds to 205kph G 250kph based on latest warning from JTWC, still a Category 3 typhoon.

Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) completes the Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it moves closer to Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have increased a little bit to 205kph gusting to 250kph (making it a Category-4 typhoon). Muifa was located approximately 750km southeast of Okinawa, moving northward at 15kph.

Recent VIS image shows a bigger eye, although somewhat cloud-filled, and a much improved system overall compared to 24 hours ago. IR also shows cooling cloud tops surrounding the center. Conditions remain favorable so we do expect Muifa to continue intensifying, especially now that a new eye has formed.

Computer models are showing better agreement with regards to the track with most solutions taking Muifa near or just south of Okinawa. GFS remains a northerly outlier-taking Muifa towards Kyushu. For us, we are forecasting Muifa to move just south of Okinawa by Thursday morning (Japan time), less than 150km away from the island. Strong winds will begin to lash Miyako, Okinawa, and Amami beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting into Friday morning. Still too early to say the exact timing of winds and how strong they are going to be, as well as the projected rainfall amount.

Medium to long range forecasts shows Muifa slowly turning northward by Friday into Eastern China.

Our video update will be posted by 4:30pm today. We will have a more in-depth discussion on Muifa, 97W near Luzon, 98W near Wake Island, and the SW Monsoon that continues to ravage parts of Luzon including Manila. Stay tuned!
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 080211

No comments:

Post a Comment